Seats Decide: January 2026 Projection

If parliamentary elections were held in mid-January 2026, the modelled distribution of seats based on aggregated polling data would result in an 88 : 62 split in favour of the opposition—only two seats short of a constitutional majority. At the same time, significant shifts are visible within the governing bloc (decline of HLAS and SMER, growth of Republika) and a return of the Democrats to parliament. The decisive factor remains approximately 470,000 undecided voters (17%).

Based on averaged public opinion polling data (collection up to 15 January 2026), the modelled distribution of parliamentary seats, assuming elections were held in mid-January 2026, would be as follows:

Opposition: 88 seats

• PS – 21.50% → 37 seats

• Slovensko + Za ľudí – 9.17% → 16 seats

• SaS – 7.30% → 13 seats

• KDH – 6.73% → 12 seats

• Demokrati – 5.67% → 10 seats

Governing bloc + Republika: 62 seats

• SMER – 17.43% → 30 seats

• Republika – 10.80% → 19 seats

• HLAS – 7.67% → 13 seats

Below the electoral threshold (5%):SNS (3.30%), Hungarian Alliance (4.13%), We Are Family (2.63%)

Key Changes Compared to the 2023 Elections (Votes)

Total votes in the modelled projection (January 2026):

• Opposition: 1,376,337 votes

• Governing bloc: 1,255,937 votes

• Difference: +120,400 votes in favour of the opposition

Since the 2023 elections, governing parties have lost a combined 508,000 voters:

• SMER: −204,690 votes (−30%)

• HLAS: −226,940 votes (−52%)

• SNS: −76,830 votes (−46%)

This decline is partially offset by the growth of Republika:

• Republika: +153,987 votes (+109%)

Change Over One Year (January 2025 → January 2026)

Governing bloc:

• SMER: −111,353 votes, −7 seats

• HLAS: −122,085 votes, −8 seats

• Republika: +92,984 votes, +6 seats

Opposition bloc:

• PS: −78,473 votes, −5 seats

• Demokrati: +37,479 votes, +10 seats

• Slovensko + Za ľudí: +47,605 votes, +3 seats

• SaS: +12,255 votes, +1 seat

• KDH: −1,365 votes

Decisive Factor: Undecided Voters

Approximately 470,000 undecided voters (around 17% of eligible voters) remain an open factor in determining the election outcome. Based on long-term trends, it can be expected that 40–60% of them will ultimately participate in the elections, potentially having a decisive impact on the final result.

Note: The figure of 470,000 / 17% represents a six-month average reported by AKO and FOCUS Marketing & Social Research.

METHODOLOGY

• Data sourced from three independent polling agencies (collections in January 2025 and January 2026).

• Averaged values based on data collected up to 15 January 2026.

• Comparison with the 2023 parliamentary elections: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic.

• Figures for the Slovensko movement include Za ľudí.

• The seat distribution presented is a projection based on voter preferences, not the current parliamentary reality.

SOURCES

NMS Market Research Slovakia AKO (for TV JOJ 24) IPSOS (for Denník N) FOCUS Marketing & Social Research Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic (2023 elections)